This is an incomplete thought experiment.
First, some premise stuff:
John Boyd posited the concept that one's orientation is the significant factor when making decisions. Orientation combined with observation creates a feedback decision loop (the OODA Loop). If you can either act unexpectedly, faster, or more correctly than an adversary you can 'operate inside an adversary's OODA loop'. Once you can begin down that path it will disorient the adversary which will make the adversary slower or incorrectly respond as the conflict changes. Continue on and it'll get to a point where the adversary simply can't make decisions based on accurate observations. End game.
This is all neat stuff but that's beyond what I want to talk about. I want to talk about orientation. Orientation (per Boyd) includes an individuals experiences, cultural heritage and traditions, synthesis of information and new information. This set of attributes has a large bearing on which decisions are made. I want to talk about the defender's orientation. Incident handlers are trained to understand and use the response lifecycle:
prepare, detect, contain, eradicate, recover, lessons learned.
There's a few minor variations of this, however it's in all coursework. My experience suggests that this lifecycle is the framework that nearly all security industry products, incident response plans, incident handlers, and organizations use. In short, it's part of our training and traditional thought process and has an influence on our orientation.
Every phase of the traditional response life cycle imples an inward focus. If one is so internally focused then one is not observing new information and unfolding circumstances. This seemed reasonable in 1998 when defensive tactics were against self propagating malware DoSing servers left and right. This is no longer the world we live in; now it's theft, extortion and espionage. We must additionally be outward facing and better engage the adversary. Note the lack of questions surrounding who initiated a compromise or why. These are not philosophical (or law enforcement) questions, but focus on the very real concern of uncovering "who was the operator behind this? what was she seeking? did she achieve her goals? is this part of a larger sequence of events? what can I do to break her OODA Loop?".
Let's tinker with a different incident response approach.
Trigger -> Operational Response -> Tactical Response -> Prepare
Trigger. Observe, Detect, etc.
Consider the trigger as all observations. It begins at the traditional 'detect' phase of the doctrinal lifecycle. This is stuff like IDS events, AV alarms, SIEM alerts, and end user or third party notifications. It's also searching for unknown unknowns through both automated and manual system or network profiling. This includes another set of data including network traffic, filenames, hashes, domains, or IP addresses.
Operational Response. Contain -> Eradictate -> Recover -> Lessons Learned
After the trigger is initiated we move into operational response. This is the traditional response mechanisms on removing the active threat and recovering to full business measures. See NIST SP 800-61. Or the CISSP coursework, or any security 101 book. Clean up your systems, get them back to operational status, figure out if there's a way to prevent it from occurring again.
Tactical Response. Gather and Characterize Indicators -> Integrate and Analyze -> Confuse & Disorient
Next we move to tactical response. This is using threat intelligence by identifying new indicators of the compromise and rating, classifying, and assessing those indicators. Integrate and Analyze. We begin to integrate that dataset into our standard detection and protection controls. At the same time an analysis is performed against other compromise datasets to determine any similarities, odd dissimilarities, and draw conclusions and future use. For example, recon activity X is linked to Exploit Y which was also seen in Incident case numbers 43, 71, and 72. A more aggressive example: monitor adversary's suspected infrastructure for changes. A new or expired IP address or domain can be interesting and suggest upcoming changes. And finally, Confuse & Disorient. Feint weaknessness, show unexpected activity, make the adversary know that you know she knows you know what is going on, use misinformation. Maybe you should click any malicious link, lots of times from lots of locations. Do several layers of active DNS lookups, possibly query the webserver as to it's version. Turn the target into a honeypot. Contact owners of external systems affected. Plant passwords, files, fake contacts, pgp keys.
This is what's been rattling around in my head for the last week. Ultimately, we need to analyze not just our weaknesses, but our adversaries weaknesses. We need to fix our orientation to allow better decisions. We need to stop crippling our capabilities.